SUMMARY

About

This project will develop a free online service with an App for seismic anti-forecasting (quiescence prediction), i.e., the absence of M6+ strong seismicity globally.

Science

The project is based on a discovery of the only known pattern in instrumented records of global M5.6+ seismological data. This discovery has been independently verified and never opposed.

The discovery is a result of research that continued Tesla's work in geophysics by regarding the whole Earth as an externally forced magnifying oscillator (georesonator for short). It is a concept Tesla applied to geophysics from his invention in electricity known as the magnifying transmitter.

That the pattern is real can be seen from its resolution's increase with the Lithosphere's response to increasing M6.2+ seismicity, as well as from a mathematical generalization of the georesonator concept, resulting in a first-ever theoretical expression for the Newtonian gravitational proportionality G (and thus gravity too) via speed of light. In his little known work in geophysics, Einstein hinted at such a relationship.

Verification

Real-time monitoring of global seismicity is used to verify the anti-forecasting on the project website since 2015.

Future

A first of its kind, this research has a real potential to lead us to direct, i.e., physics-based forecasting of M6+ strong earthquakes.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is this research at its initial stage?
No. This research has been accepted for publishing by a leading peer-reviewed journal in seismology   (database). (Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Yun-tai Chen, member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.)  The background research has been published by a leading peer-reviewed journal in geophysics.

Is this project at its initial stage?
Yes. The background is on the project website where you can follow the success of anti-forecasts since 2015.  You can see the project leader's bio here.

So, what's this "anti-forecasting", anyway? 
An acronym coined by a USGS scientist Ruth Harris in 1998 for stating of unlikelihood for a strong earthquake to occur.

What's it good for?
General safety. All-scale development. Nuclear facilities operation & maintenance. Transport of sensitive materials. Travel & vacation planning.

PROJECT

About

Recent geophysical discoveries have shown that external (astrophysical) phenomena cause ~M6+ earthquakes. This project establishes a free, cross-platform online service for disseminating scientific anti-forecasts. Such forecasts will alert us months ahead of the upcoming periods of "calm Earth" (absence of catastrophic seismicity). The service will improve global earthquake preparedness.

Context

As the principal investigator's discovery of the astrophysical cause of tectonics has shown, M6.2+ strong earthquakes are not caused by internal (geophysical) forces as previously believed, but external (astrophysical) phenomena instead. A leading peer-reviewed journal Earthquake Science (Editor-in-Chief: Professor Chen Yuntai, member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences) has accepted the discovery for publishing.

Brief

As three heavenly bodies revolve in a virtually co-planar solar system like our Sun's, their relative angular velocities get in step (get dynamically aligned) from time to time. When the Earth aligns thus to two heavenly bodies for 3+ days, they magnify each other's oscillations to the point of shaking felt on Earth - as M6.2+ quakes! We observe this physical phenomenon as the increase-peak-decrease pattern in magnitudes of M5.6+ earthquakes.

Significance

Every science tries to predict reliably natural processes it studies. When that is not possible due to the unknown nature of the process, the next best thing scientists do is forecasting. Because they rely on statistics instead of missing physics, forecasts are less reliable than predictions. Thus seismology is an application of the science of geophysics to earthquake prediction and forecasting based on knowledge on past quakes.

If the physical process becomes known, its physics becomes all that scientists need to either predict or anti-forecast (safely guess the absence of any prediction) - which is a prediction in its own right. Or in case of earthquakes: to know when we will be seismically safe is as important as to know when we will not.

Goals

The project will establish the world's first online service for scientific anti-forecasting of M6+ earthquakes. The service will alert us months ahead of the periods of seismic quiescence (absence of hazardous quakes) anywhere on Earth.

We will use the funds for equipment purchases, data collection and analyses, software development, wages, and dissemination of results. External developers and test-engineers will develop cross-platform services. We will secure high-end computing power for the personnel.

Renting of shared computing power might be necessary during Phase One to develop and fine-tune the service for reliability and scalability.

In the end, we will seek a reliable non-profit foundation to take over and maintain the service permanently.

Methodology

The project methodology is based on:

• near-real-time data collection from test runs
• real-time data collection and modeling for monitoring co-service
• data analysis including numerical and spectral analyses
• verification of the online service model against science
• verification of monitoring co-service against science.

Activities

We will rely on modeling during Phase One. We will verify both modeling and real data beforehand.

We will design both the proposed online service and its variations as vector-spaces, and make comparisons against the modeled and real-world data.

Budget

• Salaries (developers, PI, students) $175,000
• Equipment (2+ high-end platforms) $40,000
• Production (server, webdesign) $15,000
• Dissemination (publishing, marketing) $15,000
• Travel (meetings, presentations) $5,000.

The budget items are essential for completion of the project. A project like this would cost considerably more if funded through usual avenues, not just due to overhead but also technical complexity and required IT expertise - here handled by external developers and IT consultants.

High-end computing power is essential, as reflected on the Equipment item. Testing in Phase One requires a strong system-architecture. Scientific and commercial licensed software must be acquired. It may be necessary to rent shared power as well.

The budgeted Production costs are minimal, as they include payments for such things as server rental or purchase for 5+ years.

The budgeted Travel costs are minimal too, given the number of personnel (4-5, depending on the number of students needed).

The budgeted Dissemination expenses include marketing. While the service is free, its launch must be advertised.

Timeline

This research consists of 2 phases:

• Sep 01, 2020 - Create testing service along with background monitoring service,
• Oct 01, 2021 - Launch the full online service.

In Phase One: feasibility and scalability of the variations of the proposed online service will be tested against science for real-time data dissemination, accuracy, and reliability.

In phase Two: the full service will be established, released, as well as publicly announced and marketed.

Background monitoring service (to be developed during Phase One) will be adjusted and included as part of the full service, for operational redundancy and increased reliability.

Additional

The background research regards the Earth as a mechanical oscillator forced externally by secondary gravitational-tidal effects - primarily mass-resonance magnification under conjunctions of Earth and two other heavenly bodies in our Solar system lasting for 3+ days. Magnification was found to cause tectonic earthquakes.

Based on the background research (into Earth's magnified oscillations as a cause of seismotectonics and a modeling-independent novel approach to spectral analysis for geophysical data), monitoring of global M5.6+ seismicity in relation to Earth's conjunctions has been performed in near-real-time over the past 5 years, and monthly results presented via testing platform at www.seismo.info.

Near-real-time dissemination has been tested for social platforms Twitter and Facebook. So far, over half a million tweets and posts have been disseminated.

Risks & Challenges

The main challenge lies in establishing a free service that will work across various computer platforms and system-architectures.

Other challenges include securing the post-project life of the online service.