🧭 What’s Happening?

Russia and Belarus are conducting a continuously-accelerated and under-reported hybrid war on our 🇫🇮🇪🇪🇱🇻🇱🇹 🇵🇱 Eastern Flank.

There have been over 400 hybrid attacks — sabotage, cyber attacks, cut undersea cables, GPS jamming, school bomb threats, airspace violations, propaganda activities, border provocations, and more — across our five countries on the Eastern Flank. Most of these events have never been organized to be visible to the public.

The hybrid events are under-reported. The Helsinki Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe report: Identified Hybrid Operations 2022-2024, showed in their 'not-exhaustive' map of events, about fifty terrorist events on our Eastern Flank. 

🔍 There are about 10x more hybrid war events happening than people realize!

Alongside these attacks, our governments and communities have issued 400+ responses and defense preparations — but they, too, are often buried in scattered reports.

🔍 Our five countries are preparing and responding — and it’s time people knew that, too. When the next person says to you: "The Baltic countries are scared", you can answer: "No, we are busy preparing and responding. Look here." Then show the data.

Gist of the Project:

Transforming 800+ unstructured reports into one living spreadsheet — to reveal the truth, raise awareness, and build our collective defense.

Scoping the Time:

800 manual spreadsheet entries x 5min/entry = 4000 minutes = 70 hours

Current Unstructured Data:

Initiated in second week of October 2023, when, in the same week: 1) 1000s of schools received bomb threats in the five countries and 2) the Balticconnector line in the Baltic Sea was cut. Continue data collecting to now.

Raw Data: Seven month Twitter thread (to April 2024), tagged with one of three nodes, then after April 2024, 4K line ascii file with information. Below we see a snapshot of the messy, unstructured data that must be entered in the spreadsheet.

Data Sources:

I collected the data from a long list of public sources. I will describe these sources and my search keywords to pick these up in my Updates. 

Transformed Data:

Will look like the following.

Here are 20 records, to start the project, which is approximately one hour of manual copying/pasting.

Project Outcome:

• 800 events/data pieces organized into a usable, structured format
• Sourced data follows the 3-node model Russia that uses to build hybrid operations
• An Education to recognize three-node patterns for situational awareness
• Show that our five nations are actively preparing our defenses and responding to threats
• Build a community of watchful eyes to help me track and expose Russia's hybrid operations.
• Structured data will be valuable for other researchers and builders of risk models to improve the Eastern Flank's defense posture.

Your support helps create a spreadsheet tool for awareness, analysis, and action — built by the community, for the community.

🗺️ What Happens Next?

1. Goal: ~8 hr per week to June, then to finish the project in total by end of June.
2. In the next weeks, I'll provide real examples of Russia's hybrid operations.
3. I’ll publish and share the spreadsheet (viewing permission) publicly as the project proceeds.
4. I’ll develop a Guide of this page's information to aid in your own education using real event examples.
5. At the end, I’ll upload the first 800 fields in the spreadsheet.
6. At the end, I’ll invite others to add new data and build this community together

🧩 Who’s Behind This?

Me, Amara Graps is a concerned scientific researcher in Latvia and regional citizen with a decades-long background in data processing, space and quantum technology, and since 2022, gathering defense information. I believe that citizen-driven awareness is one of the strongest tools we have. As a solo parent of a teen, and owner of a new business, time is precious. I cannot continue tracking without your help, and I cannot create the shared spreadsheet that I believe our community needs with my time and financial constraints. With your help, I can get us to a working foundation with structured data, while I learn who else in our community might be able to help me to continue the tracking.

This project would become a foundation for shared vigilance.

What follows is the Methodology behind the data I collected to demonstrate that there are solid principles, which is based on 100 years of empirical observations, including the experiences of 100s of eyewitnesses.

🗺️ Russia's Hybrid Blueprint

Muscovy/USSR/Russia has a Blueprint for its Hybrid War Operations, which it has reused over the last 100 years. They always use multistep operations built around three nodes.

🧐Eyes on 3 Nodes:

• Borders (sabotage). Including Sea, Air
• 5th column of Russians inside
• political disruptions that change laws to favor Kremlin
  
  

The three nodes anchor Russia's multistep operations, which look chaotic until you take a step back.

• Then factor in a long timeline.
• Muscovy/USSR/Russia works in units of decades and centuries.
• Russia is an imperial entity, bent on Europe, World.

The best way to notice Russia's multi-steps is to look at daily news. Russia's multistep operations pass under the radar unless one can identify the three nodes.

🗺️ Origin of Russia's Hybrid Blueprint

This Table from the US Congress Kersten Committee Interim Report, 1954, page 43 (Button: Read Ebook, download PDF.) summarizes Muscovy's Blueprint centered around these three nodes with variations (Type I, Type II, Type III... Type VII). You can read about the different variations (Types) inside of the Report. 

The US Congress Kersten Committee reports (>15 reports, 100s of Eyewitnesses, 1000s of pages) produced the gold standard of proofs of USSR atrocities. Every eyewitness brought proofs, which were placed in 'Exhibits', like Appendices in the back of the volumes. Many are available by Google, partially scanned. https://tinyurl.com/2ajhxj92 The Kersten Committee Report #1 on the Baltic countries helped establish in a legal context that genocide was committed by the USSR. See the 1985 Copenhagen Tribunalof the Baltic Countries against the USSR. 

I found the US Congress Kersten reports after the Bucha massacre, when I recognized the same execution methodology used in Bucha that was used in 1940 and beyond in the Baltic countries. It was in the literature in the Baltic countries for decades, but less in English, so I put in Google keywords https://ishort.ink/hYLQ and found the Report #1 on the Baltic countries,

🗺️ Contemporary Validation of Russia's Hybrid Blueprint

• Validated by 1998 Spring Russian Operation in Latvia
• Validated by 1991-1994 USSR dissolving and Baltic Independent news so far (in process)
• Validated by 2023 Estonian Internal Security report; everything they had on their 2023 report, I also had on mine.
• Compared hybrid parts with Ukrainian experiences, e.g., school bomb threats.
• Validate by US Helsinki December 2024, report; everything they had on their 2024 report for the Eastern Flank, I had on mine; the events were under-reported however.

The Value of Shared Awareness

Tom Goffus, NATO’s Assistant Secretary General for Operations, recently provided lessons from Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine where Lesson One describes this project perfectly. 

Lesson 1: “Collective action rests on the foundation of shared awareness, and it takes real work to achieve that shared awareness,” he said. “And unlike in 2014, where ambassadors were arguing, they’re looking at pictures, saying, ‘see the Russians are in Crimea,’ and the next ambassador would say, ‘No, that looks like 100 to me.’ And as a result, we didn’t do anything because we didn’t have shared awareness of what was going on. Our 2022 response could not have more been more different than the 2014 response, in primary part, due to shared intelligence among allies, especially from the U.S.”

📢 CTA Let’s build the awareness we need to protect ourselves.

Donate now to help me structure the data, show you Russia's operations in realtime, and share the knowledge across borders.
We are stronger when we understand what we’re up against.